Kenya Meteorology warns of heavy downpours as 2025 Long Rains start

When David Gikungu, Director of Kenya Meteorological Department issued an alert on 18 March 2025 from Nairobi, he warned that the country’s March‑April‑May “Long Rains” season had officially begun and heavy downpours could hit large swathes of the nation. The warning came just as the 2025 March‑April‑May Long RainsKenya met the meteorological trigger of 20 mm of rain over three consecutive days, a benchmark that KMD uses to declare the season’s onset.

Why does this matter? For most Kenyans, the Long Rains are the agricultural heartbeat – the period when crops are planted, water reservoirs fill, and food security gets a boost. But a sudden burst of rain can also turn roads into rivers and low‑lying fields into quicksand. That duality is why Gikungu’s alert carries both hope and a request for caution.

What the Long Rains Mean for Kenya

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) explained that the season’s definition hinges on two conditions: a wet spell of at least 20 mm in three days, and a sustained pattern that mirrors historical averages. The department’s monitoring unit noted a clear uptick in rainfall from the week of 3–9 March 2025, especially across the southeastern lowlands where gauges recorded an average of 28 mm in a 72‑hour window.

By the following week, 10–16 March, the highlands west of the Rift Valley and the Lake Victoria Basin saw comparable spikes, cementing the official start of the Long Rains. In practical terms, farmers in those areas can now expect soil moisture levels to rise, reducing the need for supplemental irrigation.

Regional Forecasts and Expected Impacts

KMD’s regional outlook paints a patchwork of rain patterns. Western highland counties – Kakamega, Bungoma, Kericho, Trans‑Nzoia and Uasin Gishu – are slated for scattered morning showers that could turn into brief, heavy bursts. In the north‑west, Turkana and Samburu may see a mix of early‑morning drizzle followed by afternoon thunderstorms, a combo that often spawns flash floods in the low‑lying valleys.

Meanwhile, the eastern highlands – Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Murang’a, Kiambu and the capital region – are forecast for occasional cloud cover with sunny intervals, a pattern that farmers describe as “rain on demand”. The twist is that isolated heavy bursts could still occur, particularly over the Rift Valley’s escarpments where orographic lift amplifies rain.

• Highlands West – morning showers, 10‑20 mm per event.
• North‑west (Turkana, Samburu) – mixed drizzle and thunderstorms, heightened flood risk.
• Highlands East – intermittent clouds, mostly dry spells.
• Lake Victoria Basin – steady rain through April, supporting maize planting.

Nyamira County, which released its own forecast on 17 February 2025, expects a "normal" distribution of rain with a peak in April. The county’s agricultural officers say that while most villages will see average totals, a handful could get above‑normal amounts – a scenario that could stress already‑saturated soils.

Advice for Farmers and Residents

“Stay alert, stay safe,” Gikungu urged during the press briefing. KMD recommends that households in flood‑prone zones monitor local radio updates and keep sandbags or other barriers ready. For farmers, the key is timing: plant early‑season crops like beans and sorghum now, before the heavier April showers arrive.

Community leaders in Kisumu and Eldoret have already organized emergency response drills, mirroring a model first piloted after the 2018 heavy‑rain event that caused extensive road damage. The drills focus on rapid evacuation routes, temporary shelters, and the distribution of clean drinking water – essential steps when flash floods turn streams into hazards.

Historical Context and Seasonal Variability

The Long Rains have a storied track record. Since the 1990s, Kenya’s average March‑May precipitation has hovered around 550 mm nationally, with the western highlands typically receiving the bulk. However, the past decade has seen more pronounced regional swings, a pattern scientists link to El Niño‑Southern‑Oscillation (ENSO) cycles and the Indian Ocean Dipole.

In 2020, for example, an early onset triggered a cascade of landslides in the Rift Valley, while 2022 saw a delayed start that squeezed planting windows for smallholder maize growers. The 2025 outlook sits somewhere in the middle – an early onset but with intensity that varies sharply from county to county.

Looking Ahead: What to Expect Through June

KMD’s long‑range models suggest the rains will linger into early June, with a gradual tapering off toward the end of the month. This extended window offers a second planting opportunity for fast‑growing vegetables, but also raises concerns about water‑borne diseases such as cholera, especially in densely populated urban slums.

Health officials in Nairobi have already pre‑positioned oral rehydration salts and are urging residents to boil water before drinking. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture is coordinating with KMD to issue weekly bulletins that pair rainfall data with crop‑growth recommendations – a synergy that could shave weeks off harvest times.

Key Facts at a Glance

• Alert issued: 18 March 2025 by David Gikungu, Director of KMD.
• Season officially started: week of 10–16 March 2025 (20 mm rain over three days).
• Regions most affected: Western highlands, Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, north‑west counties.
• Projected end of season: early June 2025.
• Recommended actions: monitor official updates, prepare flood barriers, adjust planting schedules.